Is there a new RV bust coming?

[ensign]

With the cost of fuel, coupled with the insane price of new trailers, and everything else, my view is that the boom to buy new and big is probably over. Thoughts?

[Jagiven]

I hadn't thought about it. But I kinda hope so. Looking for a new TV right now. New camper, next year.

Maybe there will be less people in the CG's this summer.

It won't slow us down

[EA37TS]

Read 2 articles this week.

1. RV production is being cut back. Manufacturers are cutting production due to relaxing of COVID restrictions on other for of travel.

2. Campground owners are reducing RV spots so they can build cabins and install park models for rentals.

[Murff]

I was thinking the same thing, Ensign.

High gas prices will keep many from buying an RV, imho. Might even start seeing more used for sale.

Murff

[TxLoser]

I have a feeling RV’s and the trucks that pull some of them will start dropping in price soon as the market gets flooded with used stuff. The big class A pusher will be pretty unappealing when diesel is $8 or $9 a gallon. That’ll be a dollar a mile or more. Hopefully this is a catalyst for change….not referring to going EV.

[bucko]

I agree. I see the RV industry much like that of the motorcycle boom of the late 90's and 2000's. Harley bumped production of their motorcycles 10 fold. You turned the TV on, and there was countless motorcycle shows. Now, practically nothing. A couple of years ago, there were RV shows galore. Now, only a couple hang around.

Families were buying RV's for something to do with the kids. Now, I see them sit in their driveways. Several are now gone (sold off). I think these current gas prices will scare off many potential buyers. Maybe the smaller featherlites will still sell.

Scary to see though that the nicer campgrounds will move towards cabins and such. I guess this may be to lure the once cruise line folks.

[OnTheGo]

Originally Posted by EA37TS

Read 2 articles this week.

1. RV production is being cut back. Manufacturers are cutting production due to relaxing of COVID restrictions on other for of travel.

2. Campground owners are reducing RV spots so they can build cabins and install park models for rentals.

In another ? amount of months they will all be park models because we won't be able to afford to move them.

[JDug66]

I've seen this kind of post in reaction to high fuel prices before. Yes, it will affect everyone differently. Long haul campers will feel the hit the hardest. But If you tend to stay within 1-2 hours drive to get to your camping destination it's going to be part of the budget. It comes with the territory kind of thing. I've seen replies like "if you are concerned about spending money you picked the wrong pastime." No body likes paying more but it's the cost of doing business. I think limited camping availability is more discouraging and that may cause those who bought on impulse to exit camping before increased fuel costs do.

[DocBrown]

There was an article in my news feed from a national news outlet that talked about people already regretting RV purchases in 2020. Unfortunately it was a paywall site and couldn't read it to tell if it was just a fluff piece or something interesting to read.

That said, many predicted a bust once COVID "settled down". And yes, the price of gas is a factor. Remember 2008? Before that there was a boom of RV sales. People were buying them just because it was "the cool thing to do". Gas hit all time highs, tons of units went on the used market.

I think JDug66's assignment is correct. People like me who for now are only driving a few hours away, the cost of gas didn't stop us in 2008, nor will it now. It's a small adjustment to our vacation plans. But full timers and long distance travelers will be hit hard.

[kirkelli]

Yes,, and by design..

[Happy wife / happy life]

I think if fuel prices remain high it will affect the sales of new units. If they remain high for an extended period of time the used market will be flooded with private sales and repossessed units. I’m hoping for a silver lining in this mess. Fuel efficient car sales should skyrocket and full size trucks should slow way down. I’ve been in the market for a new truck for quite a while now, with any kind of luck the the price of a new truck will get back to some kind of normal. I guess it will still get back to availability. DW and I will still continue our camping adventures, but as other folks have said our trips will be limited to shorter distances. 2 to 4 hours from home.

[muckinfuss]

Just my two cents on how the camp experience may drastically change over the next couple of years.

People who make a living reading the marketplace for impact on product design, sales, buyer behavior etc., look for things called leading indicators and trailing indicators. An example of leading indicators: in the 70's as baby boomers aged into getting married, having kids, buying houses etc., the motorcycle business collapsed. The Japanese saw it, the British didn't. Hense, by 1984 BSA and Norton disappeared, Triumph was on life support, and The Big Four from Japan made money with products that were still affordable and fit the new lifestyles of those people. An example of the same business model using lagging or trailing indicators: Harley based their designs on what people who buy their bikes do to customize them so they're essentially selling a factory customization. I see Ford throwing a similar selling model out recently to see if the ordering 'customization' at the factory sells trucks.

A few of us over a Pinochle game were discussing the current situation and just a couple of the guesses that surfaced: the Uber, Doordash and all those business models that flourished for the past two years are losing at the street level at a high rate due to gasoline costs, loss of restaurants with customers, people working from home not using ride-share from not going anywhere and those businesses see no real way to compensate shrinking market and loss of drivers. People who do things with their children change what they do as the kids age out of activities and at a certain age (teens?) it is sometimes no longer convenient to do try and dedicate the same time and ideas as before with them since they want to go their own way and it's also the time when most adults are in their prime earning years which puts real time commitments on parents as workers. I know my wife's kids are currently working more mandatory hours than they have in the past ten years. It's taken a toll on their activities. A big time eater with one of her daughters: four boys age 9 to 19 and all four are state level wrestlers. Now that's extreme, but teens with sports destroy family vacation planning.

Bottom line of that thinking is that there are changes coming in camping, glamping, full timing etc. What are they? Your guesses are just as valid as mine, but the experience we all will see is mainly based on how the marketplace reacts. Some business will disappear, some will consolidate, some will develop on ideas that we've not had to deal with previously and so on. I will say this....I'm not buying a new truck, or a new trailer.

[Marine71-76]

Is diesel prices going to impact our upcoming trips? Maybe. We have a trip from SW Ohio to SW Missouri in May. Then a trip from SW Ohio to Rochester, MN eventually going to Dodge City, through SW Missouri and back to SW Ohio. For that trip, reservations are already made/paid for. Do we go ahead & take the trip? Or do we take a loss and just stay home? That is a discussion we are having with the other couple going with us. We have also discussed renting a car when we get to some of our campsites for visiting sites leaving the trucks to "rest".

Our 2008 F450 is definitely not as fuel efficient as their 2017 F350. Yes, we have looked at upgrading to a more fuel efficient truck. However, from what we have been told, ordering with 5-6 month wait. And when we "built" out one in 2020 it was close to $90,000. Absolutely NO.

We survived the 2008 fuel issue so feel we will survive this one.

[ensign]

I am not saying that those of us who have trucks and trailers will give it up. I will still be camping, although I may well cut back on distances.

My point was simply that the day of people rushing out to buy new, or even used, may be gone. Last summer I knew three people who were frantic to run out and buy new or used, whatever they could get their hands on. They wanted something safe during covid and were willing to pay $$$$. Now, I know of no one who is in the market, or in a buying frenzy. Indeed, one of my friends who did buy, is now looking to sell and regrets the purchase.

[LuckyDuck]

Everything’s cyclical and the RV market is no different. A lot has changed in the past 6-12 months — Covid is waning, things are opened up, and RV lots are bountiful (at least my local CW and Gander are packed). Those who bought RVs at any price now are looking at twice the price of fuel to tow them and many may already have gotten RVing “out of their system” after a few trips, realizing it isn’t as glamorous as a resort hotel.

I think sales will decline appreciably compared to the last two boom years and the “fringe” RVers will dump theirs. And when the supply-chain issues finally ease, truck prices will come down to earth. We hard-core RVers may find a little less competition from newbies for some sites, which would be nice. If I were selling, which I’m not, I’d do it sooner rather than later.

OK, I’ll put my Tyvek cover back on my crystal ball…

[TCNashville]

Apparently oil dropped double digits today. Gee, I wonder if the price of fuel will drop as fast as it went up.

[ShotgunZ71]

Originally Posted by TCNashville

Apparently oil dropped double digits today. Gee, I wonder if the price of fuel will drop as fast as it went up.

Absolutely not! Don't get carried away, now!

[WFOracing]

If interest rates go up, inflation continues on this trajectory, and fuel costs remain high for any length of time; then the industry will take a hit. The real question at this point (assuming all the aforementioned issues are/do come true) is how big a hit.

[DocBrown]

Well, above I said it wouldn't stop us. And honestly, it's not. Some other things had us thinking recently and last weekend we made the decision to sell. Might not be the best time to do so, but it's actually a relief not to have to get ready to go camping, nor the work involved in setup/breakdown.

[Grumpaw374]

Everything has gone up and will likely not come down too much in the near future.
I understand some wanting to get out of rv'ing, but wife and I still have a few good years left, and we aren't going to sit around.
Just bought a new trailer and already have 4 trips planned this year, reservations made.
It's just not worth it to give up what we enjoy, even if it costs more.
If you think traveling, staying at hotels/motels, buying 3 meals a day will be any cheaper, think again
I have been thru many of these rising costs periods over the years...things change, but we adapt, but doesn't mean giving something up completely.