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Old 12-30-2022, 10:33 AM   #1
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Reading the tea leaves......

End of year is when I take time to review and plan the cash flow and how investments may or may not work out going forward. A fundamental to both of those plans is how the world consumes energy. This means looking at the futures/commodity market for ideas on where these things are heading. In a nutshell, gasoline is a key indicator. So is natural gas. Three analyst predictions for gasoline futures (Fitch, EIA and Wallet Investor) are in unison in their view of gasoline futures (diesel tracks the same). Caveat; crystal ball gazing comodities can and will continue to be a bit of voodoo that can be off in any number of ways, but when there's consensus...the "what" is usually on track and the how high/how low are the question marks. So here's what I came up with from an assay published Dec. 12: 2022 end of year wholesale gasoline per gallon is $2.22; and that is a baseline of averages of all refineries. End of year 2023 is forecast to be $2.77. Jump to 2025 and that end of year number is $3.79 per. Jump again to 2027 and it becomes $4.76. I'll save you the pain of my math, but those numbers really are a jump from the long term average annual inflation numbers. Buckle up.
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Old 01-03-2023, 04:35 AM   #2
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Prediction: "world is not going to end" soon.

Go back to 1950 and see how the numbers crunched to present.

Fact: commodities go up, but life goes on.

I'll continue to live like Red Skeleton did...he opened his right eye each morning when he awoke; if he saw flowers and candles, he stayed in bed. Otherwise he got up and enjoyed another blessed day.

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Old 01-03-2023, 05:48 AM   #3
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I appreciate both opinions and I do invest fairly heavily mostly in stocks, some commodities and a few small other avenues. I have suffered huge losses but realized huge gains at times. Unfortunately, I am at the age now where I need to minimize risk and move towards a more conservative strategy. I simply can't afford this huge losses anymore.

Without getting political, the direction we are headed right now as a nation has me concerned and I am looking at alternatives to the tradional investments that have done so well for me in the past.

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Old 01-03-2023, 07:31 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by Marcm157 View Post
the direction we are headed right now as a nation has me concerned.
I consider that myopic, and it implies the direction we are going is unique. I would say instead the direction we are headed right now as a world has me concerned.
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