Weak RV Sales Signal Imminent Recession?

[Randel J]

I get that the US is heading for a possible economic recession, and that the RV industry may suffer especially hard. But as Mark Twain commented on hearing reports that he had died said; "the reports of my death are greatly exaggerated". I guess only time will tell how the trailer industry eventually shakes out.

[Murff]

A friend just bought a fully loaded 2022 F350 Platinum with a MSRP of around $93,000.00. He offered the dealer $84,500.00. The dealer said no way they could sell it for the offer. So, the friend said fine and got up to walk out the door stating there was another he was going to look at the next day at another dealer.

Saleman and sales manager conferred for a few minutes and actually came back with a counter offer of $84,000.00! My friend is now the owner of that truck.

Murff

[klinner28]

Originally Posted by Murff

A friend just bought a fully loaded 2022 F350 Platinum with a MSRP of around $93,000.00. He offered the dealer $84,500.00. The dealer said no way they could sell it for the offer. So, the friend said fine and got up to walk out the door stating there was another he was going to look at the next day at another dealer.

Saleman and sales manager conferred for a few minutes and actually came back with a counter offer of $84,000.00! My friend is now the owner of that truck.

Murff

That's frigging awesome! I'm looking at a GMC and they have way more inventory than Ford. I'll try the same tactic.

[TxLoser]

There’s trucks out there now. I went and picked a Chevy off the lot. No crazy up charge or anything. MSRP, but the trade is where you negotiate around here. They don’t last long, but they exist. Don’t know about Ford or Ram. I’ve got a friend who’s been waiting on an ordered F350 for well over a year. Ridiculous. I’d move on. I think the interest rates are helping with this. I didn’t finance but talking with the finance guy, they still have people putting almost nothing down on $80-90k vehicles at these current rates. That’s a mortgage, and will keep many out of the game creating more bargaining power and availability.

At my local RV dealer I see reasonable pricing on FW’s and Motorhomes now. Still more expensive than pre-pandemic due to inflation etc, but the amount off MSRP is reasonable. As someone else said, I’d just like to get back to having easier site availability.

[ChrisLoftis]

Originally Posted by TMTEX

Now if we can get back to the days where you dont need to make a reservation 6 months in advance for a basic local camp ground.

I completely agree here. What happened to the days of being able to book for the weekend no more than two weeks in advance.

[Crabman]

Originally Posted by ChrisLoftis

I completely agree here. What happened to the days of being able to book for the weekend no more than two weeks in advance.

I miss those days. We used to book on a whim if the weather looked good at our favorite campgrounds, now it's a year in advance.

[Rongbrown]

Originally Posted by gypsmjim

This is not signalling a coming recession. IT'S ALREADY HERE. The only reason we don't know about it is because the powers-that-be changed the rules about how to determine a recession.

Ditto!

[Jagiven]

Originally Posted by adsfhjq

Everyone bought an RV during COVID and now nobody needs a new one.

Speak for yourself (just kid'n). We're looking for a new rig. Hope to get a good price.

[ems437]

Weak sales don’t seem to be swaying the dealership here in their commitment to hold out for larger profits on future sales.

Interestingly enough, I got a 171BH a year ago. I took it out a few times this year and it’s been a great fit for me to get out on the weekends to go fishing or the lake. But now my wife has decided she is going to start taking some road trips with me and we need something bigger that has more comfort appeal for her.

I live in the Kansas City area. And we have several very large RV dealerships in the area, but only one Jayco dealership. So the Jayco brand has a lot of competition in the area, which made this even harder for me to believe.

We had been going in to the local Jayco dealer and getting comfortable with our upgrade choices for about a month. We settled on a 25RB that we decided on. The dealership has had two of this model on their lot since last July.

The general manager told me that December is the slowest month of sales in the area and the dealership actually pretty much shuts down, except for one or two people working this time of year. So I thought now should probably be a good time to negotiate an upgrade to our Jayco before it gets warm out again.

So I started talking to a salesperson who has been working there about six months. I told her I’m a previous customer, and my previous salesperson was the guy who retired last month and so I needed some new help to work out a deal. I explained what the situation was for wanting to upgrade and trade in my current Jayco that’s only a year old, and that I want to work out a deal to trade for one of the two larger 25RB’s on their lot before it gets warm outside again. I have loved having my 171BH this past year, so I’m inclined to stay with the Jayco brand and their dealership if we can work out a deal.

Since everyone was slowing down their work schedules, she took down all of the deal information for everything and said she would talk it over with the sales manager and let me know what price they can do on the 25RB and what they could give me for my trade in when he came in to the office the next day.

The following day, I get an email from her offering me $18,000 difference out the door. I said ok, the MSRP difference in the two Jayco’s is about $8,000. I’ve already paid off $12,000 of the selling price I paid for my 171BH. Meaning the dealership is offering me $15,000 less for my trade in than what you are asking for an identical used 171BH sitting on your lot right now.

I was thinking more along the lines of trading about $5,000 below your used price so you can make a few thousand dollars when you resell my trade, and 30% off of MSRP for the new one, considering you got the new sale on two RV’s from me a year apart. That would be about $8,000 difference out the door. So I’ll add a couple thousand more dollars toward the trade value, so how about we make a deal at $10,000 out the door difference instead of $18,000?

She said “I’m sorry but my sales manager is not going to be accepting that offer. We gave you what we thought was a fair offer and that’s where we are at.“

I said if there is no deal to be worked out for us, or room to negotiate on anything in the price or value, there is a nice Keystone Bullet RV at Camping World across the highway that is an identical floor plan and they are very interested in getting me to discuss a deal with them.

I said if you were giving me your actual breakdown in the numbers of your offer, I might see a difference in our offers. But paying that much more, without knowing why, doesn’t make sense to me unless you are adding in some other consideration that I am not mentioning.

I walked away from the deal and have not heard a word from them since.

So if a dealership with 146 new Jayco RV’s on their lot and is supposedly not selling much of anything right now, is not interested in negotiating what would have easily been a slam dunk sale, can turn away returning customers making solid offers at 30% off MSRP, without even considering the offer, the dealership must have some incentive to hang on to inventory that has been sitting on their lot for six months already. Either that or a very strong belief that they are going to have very strong/high priced sales without being able to replenish sold stock in the spring. I would think they would be losing money in interest for every month the current inventory sits on their lot unsold. But maybe not???

Needless to say, I was really surprised at how unwilling to negotiate a deal they were…

[Crabman]

∆∆∆ One thing I would suggest is never mention a trade until you find out what you are paying for the unit you are interested in, vehicles included. Then ask what will you give me for mine. Almost like two separate transactions. That way you know exactly what they are charging for theirs and giving you for yours. You would likely do better selling it yourself since they are seemingly offering you very little for it. My experience even well before covid is that some dealers just won't deal much off MSRP while others will take off the 30% or more.

[Jerry713]

Originally Posted by Crabman

∆∆∆ One thing I would suggest is never mention a trade until you find out what you are paying for the unit you are interested in, vehicles included. Then ask what will you give me for mine. Almost like two separate transactions. That way you know exactly what they are charging for theirs and giving you for yours. You would likely do better selling it yourself since they are seemingly offering you very little for it. My experience even well before covid is that some dealers just won't deal much off MSRP while others will take off the 30% or more.

Good advice. I would also add if financing never to use the dealer (regardless of what you're buying) to handle the financing. That is another transaction and shouldn't be handle by the dealer too. That's like a realtor representing both the seller and buyer for the same transaction. Go through a credit union or other lending institution. Get pre-approved before you go shopping. It gives you a lot of buying power.

[klinner28]

Originally Posted by ems437

Weak sales don’t seem to be swaying the dealership here in their commitment to hold out for larger profits on future sales.

Interestingly enough, I got a 171BH a year ago. I took it out a few times this year and it’s been a great fit for me to get out on the weekends to go fishing or the lake. But now my wife has decided she is going to start taking some road trips with me and we need something bigger that has more comfort appeal for her.

I live in the Kansas City area. And we have several very large RV dealerships in the area, but only one Jayco dealership. So the Jayco brand has a lot of competition in the area, which made this even harder for me to believe.

We had been going in to the local Jayco dealer and getting comfortable with our upgrade choices for about a month. We settled on a 25RB that we decided on. The dealership has had two of this model on their lot since last July.

The general manager told me that December is the slowest month of sales in the area and the dealership actually pretty much shuts down, except for one or two people working this time of year. So I thought now should probably be a good time to negotiate an upgrade to our Jayco before it gets warm out again.

So I started talking to a salesperson who has been working there about six months. I told her I’m a previous customer, and my previous salesperson was the guy who retired last month and so I needed some new help to work out a deal. I explained what the situation was for wanting to upgrade and trade in my current Jayco that’s only a year old, and that I want to work out a deal to trade for one of the two larger 25RB’s on their lot before it gets warm outside again. I have loved having my 171BH this past year, so I’m inclined to stay with the Jayco brand and their dealership if we can work out a deal.

Since everyone was slowing down their work schedules, she took down all of the deal information for everything and said she would talk it over with the sales manager and let me know what price they can do on the 25RB and what they could give me for my trade in when he came in to the office the next day.

The following day, I get an email from her offering me $18,000 difference out the door. I said ok, the MSRP difference in the two Jayco’s is about $8,000. I’ve already paid off $12,000 of the selling price I paid for my 171BH. Meaning the dealership is offering me $15,000 less for my trade in than what you are asking for an identical used 171BH sitting on your lot right now.

I was thinking more along the lines of trading about $5,000 below your used price so you can make a few thousand dollars when you resell my trade, and 30% off of MSRP for the new one, considering you got the new sale on two RV’s from me a year apart. That would be about $8,000 difference out the door. So I’ll add a couple thousand more dollars toward the trade value, so how about we make a deal at $10,000 out the door difference instead of $18,000?

She said “I’m sorry but my sales manager is not going to be accepting that offer. We gave you what we thought was a fair offer and that’s where we are at.“

I said if there is no deal to be worked out for us, or room to negotiate on anything in the price or value, there is a nice Keystone Bullet RV at Camping World across the highway that is an identical floor plan and they are very interested in getting me to discuss a deal with them.

I said if you were giving me your actual breakdown in the numbers of your offer, I might see a difference in our offers. But paying that much more, without knowing why, doesn’t make sense to me unless you are adding in some other consideration that I am not mentioning.

I walked away from the deal and have not heard a word from them since.

So if a dealership with 146 new Jayco RV’s on their lot and is supposedly not selling much of anything right now, is not interested in negotiating what would have easily been a slam dunk sale, can turn away returning customers making solid offers at 30% off MSRP, without even considering the offer, the dealership must have some incentive to hang on to inventory that has been sitting on their lot for six months already. Either that or a very strong belief that they are going to have very strong/high priced sales without being able to replenish sold stock in the spring. I would think they would be losing money in interest for every month the current inventory sits on their lot unsold. But maybe not???

Needless to say, I was really surprised at how unwilling to negotiate a deal they were…

They might have bought that unit from manufacturer at a time when they had to pay top dollar, so they can't give you 30% off. They tend to be short-sighted like cars, focusing on profit at unit level vs. overall.

[Cincinnati Kid]

Well, we decided after 4 years with a HT 5th wheel, our next move (if any) will be a class A. We would not want a TT or a smaller 5th wheel, and any 5th wheel we would want would have us moving up to a dually, which gets ridiculous for sightseeing, parking, etc.
So- We'll be watching and waiting for the new motorhome prices to crash.

[Jerry713]

Originally Posted by Cincinnati Kid

So- We'll be watching and waiting for the new motorhome prices to crash.

I could be wrong but I just don't see a crash happening. Too many people like their toys and like to play for this to happen IMO. If oil prices get outrageous again that could sure slow it down a bunch though which might be the window you're looking for.

[hikerjohn7]

Originally Posted by SmokerBill

Just read this article. I guess inflation and uncertainty is causing people to hang on to more of their money. If they have any money to spend, that is.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...D=ansmsnnews11

I am not ruling out a recession. But I suspect that a sizable contributor to the drop in RV sales could be due to a hangover from the frenzied RV buying during the pandemic that was spurred on by things like the movie Nomad. Lots of Americans decided they wanted to try to live the dream life of constant travel. But I also think many people who buy RVs find out after a few months of living in campgrounds and seeing all the work it requires, decide it's not the dream life they thought it would be. So, they could be now selling their RVs judging from all the late model used rigs for sale.

[Jopopsy]

It's also probably not a stretch to assume a goodly percentage of new RV purchasers got a rude awakening w/ the 'quality' of these expensive rigs they were purchasing.

[jetlag]

We are at Camp Margaritaville,in Arburndale, Fla. for 10 days. Today we had lunch with some old friends from NC and our much younger days. They live in a gated community for mostly motor homes and a few 5th wheels. Most of these homes have garages of every imaginable design to accommodate 40' and up motor homes. Never seen anything like it and I bet RV prices are not in their radar. Never seen so many motor homes in one place, dealerships not included. A lot of those RV's are worth more than the home. Color me impressed.

[Jopopsy]

The same would go for yachts, fancy cars, etc. There will always be those who can afford it and are comfortable no matter what. Same for folks that buy McMansions, etc. If you have it, and you can afford it, why not?

For the vast majority, I have to believe that deciding "Hey I want to RV" and discovering you're north of $100k if you don't already have a truck is going to be a big hiccup in the works.

[jetlag]

Originally Posted by Jopopsy

The same would go for yachts, fancy cars, etc. There will always be those who can afford it and are comfortable no matter what. Same for folks that buy McMansions, etc. If you have it, and you can afford it, why not?

For the vast majority, I have to believe that deciding "Hey I want to RV" and discovering you're north of $100k if you don't already have a truck is going to be a big hiccup in the works.

That is true. When we bought our Pinnacle in May '21, could not pick it up until August. When we returned to pick it up, he had another Pinnacle exactly like ours and parked right next to it, so much so we couldn't tell which one belonged to us. The dealer told us then it had just been sold for $10K more. And new prices have abated some, but not nearly as much as some folks think. Used prices I am sure are a different story. With interest rates where they are, if you are not paying cash, I can see the big hiccup you mentioned.

[gypsmjim]

The other day I read an article that used car and truck prices have started to drop. Also, the demand has fallen off.

But, OTOH, sales of luxury vehicles is skyrocketing.

When we go on vacation, or just in our daily lives, we see people (like in WalMart) that seem to be living on a budget. But, for every one of those there are many more that continue to live high on the hog.

I realize that the economy is in the crapper and people are living paycheck to paycheck, but there still are a lot out there that aren't letting anything hold them back.