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Old 06-09-2021, 08:06 PM   #1
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RVs Sold Out For The Next Year

Just saw this article about RVs being sold out. Jayco is included.

A major RV maker now has $14 billion in backlogged orders and is 'pretty much sold out for the next year'.

Thor Industries - which owns RV brands like Jayco and Airstream - first began seeing a boost in sales in May and June of 2020, especially with RV newcomers, Thor Industries' president and CEO Bob Martin told Insider in May 2020.

And now, the company is "pretty much sold out for the next year," Martin told CNBC's Jim Cramer on "Mad Money." Many of Thor's dealers also have "virtually no" inventory, but because a large portion of its backlog consists of pre-sold orders, Thor currently won't be able to increase its dealers' inventories, Martin told Cramer.

Full article : https://www.yahoo.com/news/major-rv-...215922002.html
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Old 06-09-2021, 08:28 PM   #2
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I drove up to Indy the other day and you can see the Greenwood Camping World from the Interstate. Their lot looked full of brand new campers of all types, including Jayco.
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Old 06-09-2021, 08:38 PM   #3
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I drove out to Milwaukee for work last week. As I was traveling eastbound it seamed like every mile I would see at least one new TT heading west.

Couple weeks ago we went and visited my elderly parents. We discussed stopping into the their local RV dealership (just purchased by Camping World ) for some tire kicking. As we drove past, the only campers were the ones lining the main highway. Maybe a handful we could see in the rest of the big parking lot.
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Old 06-09-2021, 10:32 PM   #4
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A small local family owned RV store is looking extremely thin on stock. Where they used to squeeze them together on the lot, now they're really spacing them out to make the lot look a little fuller. They may not survive this.
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Old 06-09-2021, 10:36 PM   #5
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In a few years this crazy thirst for campers should make for a great slightly used camper market …!
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Old 06-10-2021, 05:33 AM   #6
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In a few years this crazy thirst for campers should make for a great slightly used camper market …!
Very doubtful. You must consider other factors before making wild speculations.

First, since the pandemic began many organizations have realized that teleworking is the way to go. It does not decrease productivity and it allows the organization to divest itself of a major operating expense which is infrastructure. The employees engaged in the teleworking have realized that as long as they have a good internet connection, use a firm provided virtual server and get their job done they can work from anywhere and the RV is the way to go.

Secondly, prior to the pandemic, there were quite a few published articles looking into the younger work force and what was found is those younger folks do not plan on being tied down by home ownership and want the ability to travel where their careers may take them and the RV is the perfect solution for these younger folks.

Finally, talk to the newbies hitting the campgrounds. In my discussions with quite a few of them none are expressing remorse about purchasing an RV and they are asking themselves why they have not done so earlier. About 1 in 4 have said they are looking at beginning home school because their children are doing better than they did sitting in a classroom. Most of the folks I talked to said they will never go back to vacations in a hotel and have no desires to fly anywhere.

My prediction, for what it is worth, is the newbies, with a few exceptions, are here to stay and we can expect to find fewer open campgrounds and with that will come the increased costs. I believe that reservations will be required 6, 12 more 18 months out and more campgrounds will require payment at the time of reservation with stiff cancellation policies and penalties.
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Old 06-10-2021, 06:19 AM   #7
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We have been in quite a few campgrounds in the last few months and are amazed at the number of campers that have dealer tags or temp tags on them.

This usually means they have been recently purchased in the last 45 days.
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Old 06-10-2021, 07:06 AM   #8
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Drove past our local Mom & Pop dealer the other day. They had probably less than 25% of what they normally have on the lot.
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Old 06-10-2021, 07:21 AM   #9
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I dunno. If there is nothing to sell why is a new Camping World opening up near me?
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Old 06-10-2021, 07:40 AM   #10
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In a few years this crazy thirst for campers should make for a great slightly used camper market …!

I agree. There will always be a percentage that decides it’s not for them or other things take a priority. With many more campers than usual being sold, that same percentage should equate to a bump in the number of used campers for sale a few years down the road…

And you can’t go on what new camper owners say as far as whether they regret getting a camper. They are in the honeymoon phase where it’s the best thing on earth lol…
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Old 06-10-2021, 08:44 AM   #11
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I agree. There will always be a percentage that decides it’s not for them or other things take a priority. With many more campers than usual being sold, that same percentage should equate to a bump in the number of used campers for sale a few years down the road…

And you can’t go on what new camper owners say as far as whether they regret getting a camper. They are in the honeymoon phase where it’s the best thing on earth lol…
X2

Some folks will buy them and find out how much maintenance and repair is required and give it up for a bad habit. Getting a dealer to fix anything now is out of the question with a several month lead time on anything. I'm seeing many low mileage RVs on the market in a couple of years.
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Old 06-10-2021, 10:19 AM   #12
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Amount of inventory seems to vary by region of the country. May find what you want by shopping on line and ready to travel a ways to get it. Surprised more RV brokers have not popped up.
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Old 06-10-2021, 10:24 AM   #13
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Very doubtful. You must consider other factors before making wild speculations.

First, since the pandemic began many organizations have realized that teleworking is the way to go. It does not decrease productivity and it allows the organization to divest itself of a major operating expense which is infrastructure. The employees engaged in the teleworking have realized that as long as they have a good internet connection, use a firm provided virtual server and get their job done they can work from anywhere and the RV is the way to go.

Secondly, prior to the pandemic, there were quite a few published articles looking into the younger work force and what was found is those younger folks do not plan on being tied down by home ownership and want the ability to travel where their careers may take them and the RV is the perfect solution for these younger folks.

Finally, talk to the newbies hitting the campgrounds. In my discussions with quite a few of them none are expressing remorse about purchasing an RV and they are asking themselves why they have not done so earlier. About 1 in 4 have said they are looking at beginning home school because their children are doing better than they did sitting in a classroom. Most of the folks I talked to said they will never go back to vacations in a hotel and have no desires to fly anywhere.

My prediction, for what it is worth, is the newbies, with a few exceptions, are here to stay and we can expect to find fewer open campgrounds and with that will come the increased costs. I believe that reservations will be required 6, 12 more 18 months out and more campgrounds will require payment at the time of reservation with stiff cancellation policies and penalties.
I think you are both right to some extent. For some, the RV lifestyle will supplant the stick-and-brick and fit the new generation’s more active lifestyle. But I can’t help but believe that many are overextended, dropping 100 grand and up on brand new rigs.

Just like the last housing crash, a lot of folks, especially younger ones, borrowed on cheap interest or blew through home equity. Then things crashed. Everything’s cyclical. Interest rates will go back up, like inflation. And selling the fancy RV may be necessary. Guess we’ll see.
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Old 06-10-2021, 09:03 PM   #14
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Very doubtful. You must consider other factors before making wild speculations.

First, since the pandemic began many organizations have realized that teleworking is the way to go. It does not decrease productivity and it allows the organization to divest itself of a major operating expense which is infrastructure. The employees engaged in the teleworking have realized that as long as they have a good internet connection, use a firm provided virtual server and get their job done they can work from anywhere and the RV is the way to go.

Secondly, prior to the pandemic, there were quite a few published articles looking into the younger work force and what was found is those younger folks do not plan on being tied down by home ownership and want the ability to travel where their careers may take them and the RV is the perfect solution for these younger folks.

Finally, talk to the newbies hitting the campgrounds. In my discussions with quite a few of them none are expressing remorse about purchasing an RV and they are asking themselves why they have not done so earlier. About 1 in 4 have said they are looking at beginning home school because their children are doing better than they did sitting in a classroom. Most of the folks I talked to said they will never go back to vacations in a hotel and have no desires to fly anywhere.

My prediction, for what it is worth, is the newbies, with a few exceptions, are here to stay and we can expect to find fewer open campgrounds and with that will come the increased costs. I believe that reservations will be required 6, 12 more 18 months out and more campgrounds will require payment at the time of reservation with stiff cancellation policies and penalties.
Making a statement about the high number of sales and making a logical prediction that it will also result in an equally high number of people coming to the conclusion that camping is not for them and they will sell their rigs is wild speculation??

1) Talking to newbies at the campground…makes the assumption that parking lots full of campers is camping and that it represents the majority of buyers… This is also exactly WHY a significant percentage will sell their rigs, they will realize it’s easier to just get a hotel room, it’s cheaper per weekend getaway too…than making monthly payments on a camper.
Regarding “teleworking” that is a small portion of the workforce and “camping is different than moving for the weekend”! And although there’s a percentage that may continue to drive to a concrete pad for 3-4 days and call that camping or “teleworking” it’s still dependent on RELIABLE internet among a multitude of other things. Going to a parking lot filled with campers aka annoying self absorbed individuals with noisy kids (no not all but some) makes actually working difficult! It’s no different than going to a busy hotel and trying to get work done…

2) Regarding young people not wanting to be tied down etc, yeah that sounds glamorous after sucking on their parents tits for 20+ years most don’t have a clue about the real world! These are the same individuals posting on Fakebook, Instacrap etc about their glamorous life while living in their parents house.
AND again the majority of the population can’t work on the road…

3) Your prediction? Is based on what your age, particular demographic, employment status, financial position …?

The Country is full of people that make snap decisions based on their immediate WANTS rather than long term NEEDS, they have short memories and think XYZ won’t happen to them! This is also why a significant percentage of individuals/businesses had financial difficulties during the past year, prior to the pandemic the economy was good, money flowed and the economy thrived. People forgot about 2008 recession just like they’ll forget about the pandemic. They spent money like there’s no tomorrow and when the economy recovers they’ll do it again.
But hey what can I say I’ve made wild speculations before…
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Old 06-10-2021, 09:16 PM   #15
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I've only got anecdotal evidence from driving around FL this past Spring but every RV place I passed was full of RV's.
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Old 06-11-2021, 12:54 AM   #16
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FWIW, Johnson RV in Sandy, Or used to have a parking los jammed full of RVs. Last time I looked there was a real dirth of RVs and a lot of them were Jaycos. I couldn't believe how empty their lot was.
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Old 06-11-2021, 05:03 AM   #17
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Every time I drive by the large local auction lot, It is FULL of RV's.
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Old 06-11-2021, 06:53 AM   #18
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I dunno. If there is nothing to sell why is a new Camping World opening up near me?
Dealer has already placed their orders for inventory. Also the larger companies like CW will move inventory from lot to lot.
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Old 06-16-2021, 12:24 PM   #19
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I drove up to Indy the other day and you can see the Greenwood Camping World from the Interstate. Their lot looked full of brand new campers of all types, including Jayco.
HAVING BEEN A DEALER A long long time, you might suspect those are all for sale, however the problem is most dealers do not have enough employees to get everything that is sold delivered, or the units that are on the lot is missing things that prevent it for being delivered. I have been sold out to the bare walls for a few months.
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Old 06-16-2021, 12:47 PM   #20
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