RV Sales Surging

[AKRUEBBE]

And then there's this crap...............

A breaking news alert from The Seattle Times. View in your browser.

BREAKING NEWS

Washington state has lost 'hundreds of millions of dollars' to fake unemployment claims
Washington has lost “hundreds of millions of dollars” to an international fraud scheme that hit the state’s unemployment insurance system as thousands of jobless workers face a longer wait for legitimate benefits. Here's what we know about the staggering losses.

[RetiredOne]

Originally Posted by RetiredOne

You do know, during the Great Recession of 2008/2009, the unemployment rate reached 10%, right? And it took almost 2 years to to get to that point. There were 15 million unemployed at that time.

We're at 15% now (and it only took 2 MONTHS) to get to that level, with almost 40 million not working..

Actually, I made a mistake on that 15% unemployment rate, that's incorrect right now. That was the rate as of the middle of April, when the official government survey was done.

In February 2020, there were 165 million people working. As of today's officially reported unemployment claims, there has been 39 million people who have filed for unemployment the last two months.

That would put the unemployment rate, right now, at 24%, not 15%..

And that doesn't factor in any who haven't filed yet, gig workers, independant contractors, business owners who can't collect, etc...

Anyone want to take a guess what the real unemployment rate is???

Those numbers would make me really skeptical that RV sales are really booming right now...

[RetiredOne]

Originally Posted by TaftCoach

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyl...ockdown-orders

Opposite what most people were predicting.

Hmmmmm..

Just saw this, from a source that apparently knows the industry:

...."The RV Industry Association's March 2020 survey of manufacturers found that total RV shipments ended the month with 30,288 units, a decrease of (-20.3%) from the 38,015 units shipped in March 2019.

Towable RVs, led by conventional travel trailers, totaled 27,723 units for the month, a decrease of (-17.9%) compared to last March’s total of 33,754 units.

Motorhomes finished the month with 2,565 units, down (-39.8%) compared to the March 2019 total of 4,261 units."
https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/r...nts-march-2020

I wonder what April's numbers will show?

[goducks]

Many of the jobs lost won't be coming back. This recession is about to turn into a depression as the recovery will be very slow. Lots of businesses that are allowed or for that matter want to reopen will be short on hire backs because there will be limits on how many people are allowed inside.
The full impact is still about 6 months away from what I've read. Once the stock market realizes that the recovery won't be a sharp 'V' then it too will tank even further.

[DocBrown]

Originally Posted by RetiredOne

You do know, during the Great Recession of 2008/2009, the unemployment rate reached 10%, right? And it took almost 2 years to to get to that point. There were 15 million unemployed at that time.

We're at 15% now (and it only took 2 MONTHS) to get to that level, with almost 40 million not working..

Plus, there are multiple reports that many haven't been able to log in and actually apply yet, due to system problems, and file... and we're still not at the bottom of the drop of this shutdown/economic destruction.

I'm not sure what you're getting at. I made a statement, not a judgement on the situation. People who are working are spending money. I'm not saying things are good. You are reading more into what I said than I did say.

We'll see what these numbers look like in the next couple of months. People are going back to work. Traffic, at least where I live, is back up to near normal levels. Of course many businesses are taking things slow. And not every business will survive this, so some won't be going back to work.

It will take a while to recover, but this is not the same as Great Recession of 2008/2009, nor that of the early '80s, so comparisons are not useful. Fact is, we've never seen anything like it. Even the financial experts have no real idea what will happen. And I haven't seen anyone on this forum claim to have expertise in this area.

[TaftCoach]

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/worr...mpers-1.631241

Thor stock prices have surged since a March.

[curver900]

Originally Posted by LuckyDuck

Exactly. Plus, the re-using of cookware, kitchen facilities etc. At least the major hotel chains have strict standards and staff for sanitizing. Not so sure about a mom-and-pop RV rental.

"strict standards"? really?? maybe at a four seasons but there are no strict standards and staff is paid minimal amounts... they don't get sick time so most of them come to work sick...and could care less if anything is cleaned...

[Rich 92154]

The dealership I'm getting my rv has been swamped with new sales. The prices have jumped 5-8 grand the last 2 weeks. On You Tube , Matt from Matt's Rv, sold 25 rvs in April and 19 in May ..so far. Before covid 19, he said a good month was being able to sell 8 or 9.

[RetiredOne]

Originally Posted by TaftCoach

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/worr...mpers-1.631241

Thor stock prices have surged since a March.

It didn't quite say that:

...."Shares of Thor Industries Inc. and Winnebago Industries, the two largest publicly trader RV makers, have also been improving off March lows."

Their stock is just following what the overall market has been doing since March... In reality, Thor stock is just back up to where it was before the shutdown...

[TaftCoach]

$35 in mid March to $87 today.

That fits my definition of "surging since March". No big deal if you have a different definition. But yes it returned to pre pandemic levels. Reading through this thread, I doubt many people would have thought that would be the case this soon. Eighteen months to two years seemed more likely.

[RetiredOne]

Originally Posted by TaftCoach

$35 in mid March to $87 today.

That fits my definition of "surging since March". No big deal if you have a different definition. But yes it returned to pre pandemic levels. Reading through this thread, I doubt many people would have thought that would be the case this soon. Eighteen months to two years seemed more likely.

Saying the stock is "surging since March", is false reporting, in my opinion, making people believe "Sales are booming".. look at the chart below.. it's just gaining back what it lost.

Like the article stated, it's the normal RV buying season now, there's pent up demand from being shutdown two months, squeezing sales into a shorter time period, and some people are looking at alternative travel situations. So, I would expect this type of sales activity, and think it's one of the few industries to bounce back quicker in the beginning.... let's wait to see if this sales burst has staying power...

Too bad Thor is still off 50% on their all time market high...

[TaftCoach]

Originally Posted by RetiredOne

Saying the stock is "surging since March", is false reporting, in my opinion, making people believe "Sales are booming".. look at the chart below.. it's just gaining back what it lost.

Like the article stated, it's the normal RV buying season now, there's pent up demand from being shutdown two months, squeezing sales into a shorter time period, and some people are looking at alternative travel situations. So, I would expect this type of sales activity, and think it's one of the few industries to bounce back quicker in the beginning.... let's wait to see if this sales burst has staying power...

Too bad Thor is still off 50% on their all time market high...

I agree. What seems to be the sticking point is my use of the word surge. I believe it means a sudden outward or upward movement. And, being an English teacher I get defensive about my word choices lol. Sorry

[RetiredOne]

Originally Posted by TaftCoach

I agree. What seems to be the sticking point is my use of the word surge. I believe it means a sudden outward or upward movement. And, being an English teacher I get defensive about my word choices lol. Sorry

Actually, I wasn't paying attention, I would have loved to participate in that "surge". I should have anticipated the pent-up demand, and bought a bunch of Thor stock in March... that would have been a fun surge to ride!!

[RetiredOne]

Here's the update on the industry through April this year. It explains why the dealers are being slammed right now, since many were able to re-open. Towables are down -21% overall this year, and motorhomes are down -38% overall this year.

Total units sold in April 2019 were 40K, this April 2020 was only 7K.

It will be interesting to see if the numbers are able to catch up for lost time....

https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/r...nts-april-2020

[LuckyDuck]

If you still think RV dealers/makers can’t sell ‘em fast enough, check this out. When was the last time JAYCO offered $1,000 factory rebates? Announcing the Jayco Loyalty Blue Tag Sales Event!

[tg.310]

Thats interesting. Anyone going to take advantage of it?

[Newbieowner61]

The parks in Michigan are busting with tent campers who have never camped before. Can’t find a used camper to save your life in Michigan. It’s a law here to wear masks in any indoor public place.
Newbieowner61