What will happen to the industry & RV’ers

[RetiredOne]

Originally Posted by CAG

We must have been on different planets at that time. The US market crash took the rest of the world along with it.

Yeah, we must have been on different planets back then, because I don't remember a single state in the country being mandatorily locked down back then, and I don't remember a single country being put on a mandatory lockdown. I also don't remember housing markets in other countries melting down either.

[Grumpy]

Originally Posted by CAG

2008 required 10 years to recover. This will not take that long.

Definitely.. One of the Top Economists said "This is not a Recession it is a Planned Shutdown and things will turn around quickly".

[Siamese]

Originally Posted by Johnynorthland

Oh, I love John Lennon, but right about now, I don't need a bunch of out of touch, misguided celebrities singing to me about a communist utopia.

"Imagine no possessions"? Seriously, you're the guys with the Bugatti's, not me.

This makes about as much sense as Leonardo DeCrappio telling me I need to reduce my carbon footprint when he's the one flying on private jets and owns a yacht that takes upwards of 30,000 gallons to fill with fuel.

[curver900]

Originally Posted by billcf7

2008 all over again only worse

I guess I disagree this is totally different... 2008 there was a huge run up in costs.. gas at almost 5 bucks, housing crazy and people getting loans that they knew they couldn't pay back.. this is different in that people were in fairly good financial shape. Gas was "normal" housing was up but not ridiculously and most people were qualified to actually purchase stuff...interest rates low the market moving along. IMO if the testing of the malaria drugs works this will be a 2-4 week bounce... if it last more than 4 weeks well then it will be worse longer term.. hopefully the drug works and they can produce enough and if so open everything up and I believe it will be a rocket of an economy... but then I am positive and not doom and gloom...

[CAG]

Originally Posted by RetiredOne

Yeah, we must have been on different planets back then, because I don't remember a single state in the country being mandatorily locked down back then, and I don't remember a single country being put on a mandatory lockdown. I also don't remember housing markets in other countries melting down either.

LOL-See Grumpy's comment. You're spouting cause. I am talking effect.

[Siamese]

Originally Posted by Grumpy

Definitely.. One of the Top Economists said "This is not a Recession it is a Planned Shutdown and things will turn around quickly".

Ditto. We went into it with a strong economy. Depending on the duration, I'm optimistic about a speedy recovery.

[RetiredOne]

Originally Posted by Grumpy

Definitely.. One of the Top Economists said "This is not a Recession it is a Planned Shutdown and things will turn around quickly".

Which one?

....."That’s Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard explaining to Bloomberg News why he sees the U.S. unemployment rate hitting 30% in the coming months as the world continues to grapple with the coronavirus pandemic.

If his gloomy jobs projection proves to be true, unemployment would be worse than it was during the Great Depression and three times worse than the 2007-’09 recession, according to Reuters.

Bullard also said he expects an unprecedented 50% plunge in gross domestic product."

[RetiredOne]

Originally Posted by billcf7

2008 all over again only worse

Some seem to think that:

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said the coronavirus will inflict greater economic pain than they previously expected as they warned of a record plunge in the U.S. output in the second quarter and a deeper global recession.

Morgan Stanley’s U.S. economists led by Ellen Zentner told clients in a report on Sunday that they now see American gross domestic product falling 30.1% in April-June. That will drive up unemployment to average 12.8% over the period, they said.

At Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius’s team said in a report that they now expect the world economy to contract about 1% this year, which would be a bigger decline than even that witnessed in 2009 amid the financial crisis. They were already projecting a 24% drop in U.S. output in the next quarter.

“Economic activity has come to a near standstill in March,” the Morgan Stanley economists said. Elsewhere, Bank of America Corp’s base case is for a near 25% drop in second quarter U.S. GDP, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasts a 14% decline.

[Grumpy]

Originally Posted by RetiredOne

Which one?
....."That’s Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard

On live TV he added the "QUICK TURN AROUND"... and since we have to leave politics out of this I will post no further.

[goducks]

Originally Posted by Grumpy

Definitely.. One of the Top Economists said "This is not a Recession it is a Planned Shutdown and things will turn around quickly".

Only if it doesn't last for months. If it drags into May then forget about a quick turnaround. I also have zero confidence in our GOV to do the right type of stimulation. Americans need a ton of cash until this is over.
There's already talk about ending the GOV's closure guidelines. Big mistake.

[SloPoke]

With non-essential workers being impacted (the RV industry) and out of work as announced today- Thor and other companies have to make tough decisions to either keep their workforce from coming into the factory and risk getting those valuable employees infected, or shut down operations and isolate. They also know that sales of just about everything other than Groceries and Prescriptions are slowing to a crawl. If they keep the factory running, they would over-produce what the market would be able to purchase and devalue the RV-Market even more. The RV industry is one of those more fragile ones that rely on the customer having disposable income.

Now think about all of the RV Resorts, Parks and related destinations that are closing up shop right now... Yea, the Snowbirds are now heading north, but Spring is a big time for migratory Full Timers that are having some challenges getting back home. Will these RV Resorts be open next year? or be a dried up field with concrete pads and a 50A pedestal that is shut off? It is going to be hard on everyone.

[Duke4857]

I still plan to boondock this summer a few times. It may be a short trip into the woods, but I will still find gas money to pull the TT to the woods. We were hurt last year by a large fire at work in July, went back full time Thanksgiving. We are still catching things up. I am hoping to work through this like a few others. The company ran through 2008. Our 401k took a huge hit, but we were still working. There has been some policy changes at work, the 6 foot space thing, hand sanitizer and wash your hands. Break room is not big enough for all to be in at one time. As for the RV industry, I hope they take a look and put quality building more than production. They are not going to be able to get away with some of the things that manufactures have been doing. Unless I get a great deal, this will be our last camper we buy. All that needs to be done is maintenance and upgrades when we have the coin. Time to hit the rack. Have a good evening all.

[SeventyGTX]

Originally Posted by Johnynorthland

It was sickening to see on the news peoples carts full of nothing but toilet paper! Shame on them, the management and the cashiers of those stores, they should’ve restricted buying early on. I was watching a “nomadic fanatic‘s” post today YouTube he’s been out of toilet paper for nine days traveling threw Texas and can’t find any!


Also, Through all of this nonsense has anyone heard anything about our border security? Now more than ever It should be a big concern but yet I have yet to hear about it on the news ever since this whole thing escalated!?

Yea I couldn't figure that out, you can't eat toilet paper.

[JFlightRisk]

Originally Posted by SeventyGTX

Yea I couldn't figure that out, you can't eat toilet paper.

Perhaps they're on a high fiber diet?

[Florida Ranger]

If this virus hangs around till May, it will be a good time to pick up that late model diesel pusher you have been wanting for a lot less $ money than you could in January...

[wags999]

This is a planned stoppage...whenever it ends the demand will still be somewhat what is was.. the service industry will be hurt the most, but the gov is going to be paying most companies if they use the money to fully pay their employees. Most of the country is not effected nearly as much as a few areas. If we limit movement within the country much of it can get back to work.

What is changing is, campgrounds are closing bath houses and common areas...they have always been a PIA to keep clean and now the cost is overwhelming. You will see more campgrounds stop tent camping and going to only self contained RV's. It will allow them to eliminate bath houses, thus reducing much of the cost and aggravation of running a campground. More will add more cabins as they produce more income. I think the idea of traveling with your own bedroom and bath room will still be desirable, hotels motels etc will be hurt. Cruising may never come back totally. The way the cruise industry is handling this is driving people away. We enjoy cruising, had a cruise planned for Alaska at the end of May...Had to pay in full in February...they are not cancelling any cruise until the day it is to leave, even tho Canada has closed ports to any ships over 500 passengers until July. Cruise companies want to keep your $$ as long as they can, saying credit should be issued within 60 AFTER the cruise is offically cancelled...which they do only on the day it was to leave. I for one, will never take another cruise with any company that had that policy.

Life will change, but, in the most part, a year from now this will all be just a memory...we want what we want when we want it, sadly that's not going to change.

[Bookemdanno]

Originally Posted by wags999

This is a planned stoppage...whenever it ends the demand will still be somewhat what is was.. the service industry will be hurt the most, but the gov is going to be paying most companies if they use the money to fully pay their employees. Most of the country is not effected nearly as much as a few areas. If we limit movement within the country much of it can get back to work.

What is changing is, campgrounds are closing bath houses and common areas...they have always been a PIA to keep clean and now the cost is overwhelming. You will see more campgrounds stop tent camping and going to only self contained RV's. It will allow them to eliminate bath houses, thus reducing much of the cost and aggravation of running a campground. More will add more cabins as they produce more income. I think the idea of traveling with your own bedroom and bath room will still be desirable, hotels motels etc will be hurt. Cruising may never come back totally. The way the cruise industry is handling this is driving people away. We enjoy cruising, had a cruise planned for Alaska at the end of May...Had to pay in full in February...they are not cancelling any cruise until the day it is to leave, even tho Canada has closed ports to any ships over 500 passengers until July. Cruise companies want to keep your $$ as long as they can, saying credit should be issued within 60 AFTER the cruise is offically cancelled...which they do only on the day it was to leave. I for one, will never take another cruise with any company that had that policy.

Life will change, but, in the most part, a year from now this will all be just a memory...we want what we want when we want it, sadly that's not going to change.

I'm going to let the DW type her response to you in reference to the cruise industry, as she is owns a travel agency: The majority of top cruise lines are being extremely generous in offering clients piece of mind in waiting to cancel until 24 hours prior by amending their cancellation policies. I think it is easy to be egocentric in these instances but thousands are impacted when ports are closed or mandated cancellations take place. Cruise lines are doing their best and thanks to their amended cancellation policies are offering additional concessions to those with mandated cancellations and also offering a "wait and see" option for those excited to go on their planned trips and not wanting to cancel pre-emptively. Those choosing to wait loose nothing. So kudos to the cruise industry by amending policies and allowing clients time and piece of mind as well as 100+% return on monies spent.

[wags999]

Originally Posted by Bookemdanno

I'm going to let the DW type her response to you in reference to the cruise industry, as she is owns a travel agency: The majority of top cruise lines are being extremely generous in offering clients piece of mind in waiting to cancel until 24 hours prior by amending their cancellation policies. I think it is easy to be egocentric in these instances but thousands are impacted when ports are closed or mandated cancellations take place. Cruise lines are doing their best and thanks to their amended cancellation policies are offering additional concessions to those with mandated cancellations and also offering a "wait and see" option for those excited to go on their planned trips and not wanting to cancel pre-emptively. Those choosing to wait loose nothing. So kudos to the cruise industry by amending policies and allowing clients time and piece of mind as well as 100+% return on monies spent.

Perhaps they are treating travel agents better than direct customers. We cancelled our cruise about the first of March. We have yet to get a single dollar credited to our CC, even tho our account with Princess has shown a negative balance for over 3 weeks, and almost daily they say you should see the credit on your card within 24 hours...they lie, bottom line. I predict you may see class action law suites because of this.

To add to my comments, you will see many companies bring back production from over seas, China for sure. Immelt, GE CEO, while a member of Obama's job board, moved all of GE medical instrument production to China, and when asked about it just laughed... it cost over 1000 direct jobs in the US and now we see how short sited that was. It's not just about jobs, but about national security.

[Bookemdanno]

Originally Posted by wags999

Perhaps they are treating travel agents better than direct customers. We cancelled our cruise about the first of March. We have yet to get a single dollar credited to our CC, even tho our account with Princess has shown a negative balance for over 3 weeks, and almost daily they say you should see the credit on your card within 24 hours...they lie, bottom line. I predict you may see class action law suites because of this.

To add to my comments, you will see many companies bring back production from over seas, China for sure. Immelt, GE CEO, while a member of Obama's job board, moved all of GE medical instrument production to China, and when asked about it just laughed... it cost over 1000 direct jobs in the US and now we see how short sited that was. It's not just about jobs, but about national security.

My piece on this is that...NO, the travel agents aren't benefiting more than the clients! If the client doesn't GO...the travel agent isn't paid...go figure! Here's the DW's response:
Lines are working on cancellations with travel dates closed to the mandated cancellations. There is a huge volume and patience should be at the forefront. Working with a travel agent alleviates clients from contacting the lines directly-- we advocate for our clients and check refund statuses on their behalf. I would say please apply "grace" to these situations humans dealing with out of norm circumstances can reason to create delays. Kindness+patience+grace=positivite results!
Remember...the cruise line employees are working from home too!

[wags999]

So kudos to the cruise industry by amending policies and allowing clients time and piece of mind as well as 100+% return on monies spent.[/QUOTE]



That is only partly true. Yes you can cancel much closer to the day of departure, BUT they are not giving you your money back...they give you a portion (25%) and then give FCC...future cruise credits.. They keep your money for a year? And you have to pay whatever is the going rate at that time.. When THEY can't 'full fill the contract they are do zero of my money.. I didn't cancel the trip, they did. As your aware no foreign flagged ship can sail only within the US it has to stop at a foreign port by law...leaving from Vancouver doesn't allow any options when Canada has closed all ports to any ship with more than 500 passengers. Going to try and get a waiver and leave from Seattle? The center of the virus? The CDC today posted they do not recommend anyone take a cruise as the ships are incubators for illness. They have built ships too large with too many people it too small an area to be safe. Our first cruise on Princess was the original Island Princess from Love boat fame... it held about 600 passengers...a more controllable number of people than today's 3000, or 4000 passenger ships...

Their are still cruise ships on the seas that can't find a place to disembark passengers, no one wants them because of illness's. Large unmanageable ships may be from a time that has passed. They found the virus lived for 17 days after the passengers disembarked...so your living in the cesspool that two loads of passengers left before you...no thank you... I'll stay with my RV. We already dropped plans for a 28 day cruise to the South pacific next year... not worth the chance of being at their mercy...read some of the reports of those that were trapped on board the two princess ships....it was horrendous.