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Old 03-19-2020, 09:13 AM   #1
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What will happen to the industry & RVíers

I wonder how the current state of our nation will effect the production, sale and resale of RVís?

Will it effect the way we camp & travel?

Will there be more and more people getting in to this type of recreation, or Will it even be considered a recreation to some, Or will it be a new way of life for others?

This is not a doom and gloom post. Just pondering the cause and effect to see what others think or if they have informed information?

Stay safe everyone and may your wheels be turning!
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Old 03-19-2020, 10:20 AM   #2
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I think there will be two effects at work....

First, the economic impact. If the financial world collapses completely, nobody's going to have the money to buy any new RV's for quite some time.
The manufacturing and supply chain will shut down, except possibly for the supply of spares. Once the economy does, eventually, recover, there will be a considerable lag while manufacturing starts up again.

Second, we may see an increase in the number of people who want to get outdoors and away from pestilential cities, so there might be a sharp spike in the demand. This might drive an industry recovery rather more quickly, but it might also drive prices up.
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Old 03-19-2020, 10:50 AM   #3
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If I were an RV dealer or an RV MFG'er I'd be getting out now.
Yesterday in Oregon 18,500 people filed for unemployment. Average daily files are 570.
This is just ramping up. Without massive testing and too many people still going around like there's nothing going on, the virus will keep spreading like wild fire.
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Old 03-19-2020, 10:52 AM   #4
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I think there will be two effects at work....

First, the economic impact. If the financial world collapses completely, nobody's going to have the money to buy any new RV's for quite some time.
The manufacturing and supply chain will shut down, except possibly for the supply of spares. Once the economy does, eventually, recover, there will be a considerable lag while manufacturing starts up again.

Second, we may see an increase in the number of people who want to get outdoors and away from pestilential cities, so there might be a sharp spike in the demand. This might drive an industry recovery rather more quickly, but it might also drive prices up.
Interesting, I value your viewpoint and others are welcome. I do feel the same way as you. I have more hope for this industry/lifestyle than that of other entities.
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Old 03-19-2020, 11:10 AM   #5
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A major recession is already here. A lot of people will be losing income and jobs. Depending on how far the economy falls, will depend on what happens to this industry. Many people won't have the "spare" income to spend on their RVs. They'll be trying to just survive the day to day.
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Old 03-19-2020, 11:18 AM   #6
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A major recession is already here. A lot of people will be losing income and jobs. Depending on how far the economy falls, will depend on what happens to this industry. Many people won't have the "spare" income to spend on their RVs. They'll be trying to just survive the day to day.
Spot on. We're still months away from seeing any kind of plateau leveling. Then many more months before people will feel close to normal.
Catastrophic events like this cause people to review their priorities.
Couple that with many having their finances, personal savings or retirement depleted or massively drained.
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Old 03-19-2020, 11:27 AM   #7
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A major recession is already here. A lot of people will be losing income and jobs. Depending on how far the economy falls, will depend on what happens to this industry. Many people won't have the "spare" income to spend on their RVs. They'll be trying to just survive the day to day.
I totally agree retiredone! However, did you ever consider in the very unfortunate event people start losing housing and go to a cheaper alternative like RVs instead of renting? Thatís my mindset right now. Iím sure it would drive the resale price up on most mid to lower priced used RVís, heck with gas so cheap, TT will be in high demand!

Now, talking about all production ceasing, I would think it would be virtually impossible to get warranty work done let alone approved!

DW and I always debate selling our sticks & bricks just to have that extra cash flow on hand to travel more, help the kids and grandkids more and have less to deal with when it comes to upkeep on the house. Of course this was all in a Pre-corona world! Wow!, I just shook my head, how often will we all now refer to any discussions as ďbefore the virusĒ, this all sounds like a science fiction movie!
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Old 03-19-2020, 11:28 AM   #8
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People are so deep in debt with expensive homes, four cars, private schools, credit cards and hardly no savings.... what a mess.
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Old 03-19-2020, 11:52 AM   #9
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Old 03-19-2020, 12:06 PM   #10
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I totally agree retiredone! However, did you ever consider in the very unfortunate event people start losing housing and go to a cheaper alternative like RVs instead of renting? That’s my mindset right now. I’m sure it would drive the resale price up on most mid to lower priced used RV’s, heck with gas so cheap, TT will be in high demand!
That's certainly possible. But if you lose your house, your credit will be shot, so unless you have cash, good luck financing a new rig.

Same deal, if you want to sell your house, how many people are still working and can afford to buy it or get approved for a mortgage? Add on, if housing prices crater, any available home equity will be vaporized to use on a RV purchase.

It's going to be tough...
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Old 03-19-2020, 12:28 PM   #11
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Food for thought

The normal person will not buy a "first time" RV before getting their finances in order again. They will be busy recovering from 401K losses and possible lost income from short or mid term layoffs.

The RV industry will lose the small independent manufacturers. These folks will close their doors or sell out to the larger manufacturers. The stock companies such as Thor and Forest River (subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway) will survive and may do a little restructuring and reduce production somewhat.

Small mom and pop campgrounds are going to disappear unless the downturn is short lived. If the campgrounds don't disappear they will slowly enter a state of disrepair for some time. State and national parks will survive because they will receive the funding necessary from the government agency who pick the tax payers pockets. They will, however, have to jack up their fees to pay for the reduced services offered.
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Old 03-19-2020, 01:40 PM   #12
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I think many here are correct about the industry. I think it's going to face some hard times again. As disposable income evaporates, people will spend less on "luxury" items like RVs, high end electronics, etc.

At the same time, people will still need to vacation, and camping is a relatively inexpensive way to do that, so I think you'll see demand on the camping infrastructure increase in general.

And I fully expect alcohol sales to skyrocket...
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Old 03-19-2020, 02:47 PM   #13
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If history repeats itself...

There will be few 2020 model cars and trucks for sale as used in a year or two as production will be down. Same can be said for RVs in general. May be few 2021 models unless this crisis ends soon.

People will keep their vehicles longer. Disposable income will not be plentiful and I agree with Camper Bob's observation regarding luxuries vs necessities.

On a positive note, probably none of us will need toilet paper in the foreseeable future.

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Old 03-19-2020, 02:50 PM   #14
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The RV industry had already peaked and was on the downturn, some articles suggested that was a canary in the coalmine for a recession as this is usually the case in the industry. That was before Corona was a bad word. As with many things it could take quite some time to recover from this nightmare.
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Old 03-19-2020, 04:01 PM   #15
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Another thought, when things get tight, people start selling play toys and luxury items first, to generate some cash.

I expect to see a whole bunch of used rigs come on the market in the near future, along with tons of motorcycles, quads, boats, etc.....
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Old 03-19-2020, 04:08 PM   #16
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If history repeats itself...

There will be few 2020 model cars and trucks for sale as used in a year or two as production will be down. Same can be said for RVs in general. May be few 2021 models unless this crisis ends soon.

People will keep their vehicles longer. Disposable income will not be plentiful and I agree with Camper Bob's observation regarding luxuries vs necessities.

On a positive note, probably none of us will need toilet paper in the foreseeable future.

Murff
Except for those of us reasonable people who DIDN'T go out and panic buy a 30 year supply...
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Old 03-19-2020, 04:21 PM   #17
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When my supply of crap tickets run out and the stores dont have any because all the doomsday preppers hoarded it all, I'm gonna go to their house and wipe my arse on their lawn like dogs do.
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Old 03-19-2020, 04:25 PM   #18
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It was sickening to see on the news peoples carts full of nothing but toilet paper! Shame on them, the management and the cashiers of those stores, they should’ve restricted buying early on. I was watching a “nomadic fanatic‘s” post today YouTube he’s been out of toilet paper for nine days traveling threw Texas and can’t find any!


Also, Through all of this nonsense has anyone heard anything about our border security? Now more than ever It should be a big concern but yet I have yet to hear about it on the news ever since this whole thing escalated!?
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Old 03-19-2020, 04:40 PM   #19
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Let's please keep this thread on topic and not turn it into another Corona virus thread that gets shut down.
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Old 03-19-2020, 05:38 PM   #20
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When my supply of crap tickets run out and the stores dont have any because all the doomsday preppers hoarded it all, I'm gonna go to their house and wipe my arse on their lawn like dogs do.
Believe me, the “preppers” had their toilet paper and masks and shelf stable food long before they were ever needed, when there were pallets full for cheap at every hardware store and grocery.
It was the “unprepared” who were freaking out.

I’m thinking of a refinance for the 5er’ for sure if this economy goes nuts, I’ll be calling the banks soon.
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