RV Manufacturers Shutting Down

[Roosevelt008]

News in Goshen is that Keystone RV is closing certain plants and sending workers notices and unemployment assistance. Last day for Keystone workers is Sept 23rd. Wonder what the future of Jayco looks like??

[Jopopsy]

Given the amount of trailers on lots, my assumption would be its not for lack of parts (motorized is a different story). Too much inventory on lots now, not enough buyers to purchase what's there, little incentive for a dealer to place more orders?

[Grumpy]

Originally Posted by Jopopsy

Given the amount of trailers on lots, my assumption would be its not for lack of parts (motorized is a different story). Too much inventory on lots now, not enough buyers to purchase what's there, little incentive for a dealer to place more orders?

I talked to a JAYCO salesperson over the weekend and they are still not able to get the units they need. She said they are still waiting months for orders to arrive.

[Onyrlef]

Originally Posted by Jopopsy

Given the amount of trailers on lots, my assumption would be its not for lack of parts (motorized is a different story). Too much inventory on lots now, not enough buyers to purchase what's there, little incentive for a dealer to place more orders?

The reason recession following inflation is not about what is happening but rather what always happens. The classic illustration of this phenomena is when following WWI farmers plowed up the plains to plant the newest money crop, wheat, owing to the worldwide famine caused by the devastation in Europe. When the bottom dropped out (over production) as it always does, the speculators moved on to the next asset class and the farmers went broke. In this instance, RV's are a luxury item, and in uncertain economic times would be buyer's are reluctant to pull the trigger on high price investments, especially depreciating assets. When the punch bowl was out, buyers were in such haste that fresh water tanks falling off, seat covers delaminating, shoddy dealers, etc., were often overlooked, because it was a seller's market. In a buyer's market, those chickens come home to roost.

[Grumpy]

Affects 150 employees at plant 41, they have about 32 plants in Indiana. Not really a large percentage are affected.

Approximately 700 employees at the Company's facilities in Pendleton, Oregon, and total Keystone RV Company employment is about 5,500. Keystone will now have 40 total production and support facilities with 32 of those facilities located in Indiana.

GOSHEN, Ind – Some 150 workers at a Keystone RV plant in Goshen learned Monday morning (July 18) they will be out of work in September,

https://rvbusiness.com/keystone-rv-p...e-150-workers/

[craigav]

I received an email from Camping World recently and I remember it saying that they have over 27,000 RVs for sale now. Seems like a very high number however I don't know how many they normally have.

[Grumpy]

Originally Posted by craigav

I received an email from Camping World recently and I remember it saying that they have over 27,000 RVs for sale now. Seems like a very high number however I don't know how many they normally have.

They have been advertising the Coleman single axle, hot and heavy. You can get one for $5.00 a day, payments are $149 a month.

[Yooper906]

Originally Posted by craigav

I received an email from Camping World recently and I remember it saying that they have over 27,000 RVs for sale now. Seems like a very high number however I don't know how many they normally have.

No surprise here at all. Camping World has been buying up a lot of companies since 2017 or so. Plus they own Good Sam. The more RV dealers they buy, the bigger their inventory.

[curver900]

everything that goes up comes crashing down...

$5+ gas, increase in insurance, taxes going up, food up, interest rates up...

you have storage fees for something most people use 3-4 times a year.. they need to collapse their expenses... sell after they paid too much....

glut comes and prices crash... unless a change does show up it will be a big crash... i just saw an advertisement for house lending with ZERO DOWN.. that went so well last time lets try that again ...

so the old adage slow and steady.. don't jump on every tulip bulb express train...

edit - pretty nice of the company to give them a 2 month notice...

[OntFF]

We just bought a Jayco 267BHS - the dealer I got it from has 10 identical units on the lot; and 20 variations (different options and/or colours) of JUST THAT FLOORPLAN. Overall, they have over 300 new units sitting on their lot... and this is a single, family owned dealer in Niagara Falls, Canada...

Last 2 years, they couldn't get units in fast enough; so they ordered heavy for this season, expecting supply and demand to be comparable to the last two years... Supply went up, and with inflation & fuel prices; demand has plummeted - so they are sitting on hundred's of brand new units.

For those looking to buy, it's your market - for sellers, dealers, and suppliers/manufacturers; there's a couple rough years ahead, I think. I know the dealer I dealt with was MORE then happy to negotiate, just to move a unit off the lot...

[Onyrlef]

Originally Posted by OntFF

We just bought a Jayco 267BHS - the dealer I got it from has 10 identical units on the lot; and 20 variations (different options and/or colours) of JUST THAT FLOORPLAN. Overall, they have over 300 new units sitting on their lot... and this is a single, family owned dealer in Niagara Falls, Canada...

Last 2 years, they couldn't get units in fast enough; so they ordered heavy for this season, expecting supply and demand to be comparable to the last two years... Supply went up, and with inflation & fuel prices; demand has plummeted - so they are sitting on hundred's of brand new units.

For those looking to buy, it's your market - for sellers, dealers, and suppliers/manufacturers; there's a couple rough years ahead, I think. I know the dealer I dealt with was MORE then happy to negotiate, just to move a unit off the lot...

I'm seeing signs of a correction locally, the canary in the proverbial coal mine is employment. Since retiring 10 years back I do short gigs in retail and warehouses, for the first time in several years the Amazon dist. ctrs. in the DFW are at full employment and the retail club store's, Sam's and Costco employee transition has slowed significantly. And believe me, if you've decided to stay at a Sam's Club ( Wal Mart Corp.) it's only because there's no place else to go.

[1911Garand]

More great info here. The economic ninja is a great channel.


https://youtu.be/KSJUDCc8Jno

[Onyrlef]

Originally Posted by Grumpy

They have been advertising the Coleman single axle, hot and heavy. You can get one for $5.00 a day, payments are $149 a month.

A salesman's dream come true is the buyer who walks in focused on payments. Somebody's fixin' to get hosed and it ain't the seller.

[TaftCoach]

My retirement thanks THOR. I bought in just over $60 when everyone said the RV industry would collapse and sold last year at $110. Now if DS and ASO had also responded like I'd hope . . .

[gymracer]

Just what I been waiting for, the crash and then I will buy the Super C I want, luckily I bought a Jayco Seneca in 2019 before the hit. We have drive it almost the Mike's it had on it in 3 1/2 years that took the other owner 11 years to put on. I don't buy a RV to set in the driveway. 1 to 3 trips a month, usually 1000 miles round trip. Diesel prices making that fun.

[Grumpy]

Originally Posted by gymracer

I don't buy a RV to set in the driveway. 1 to 3 trips a month, usually 1000 miles round trip. Diesel prices making that fun.

Yep. Averaged over 10,000 a year with both ours. The 08 KODIAK was sweet.

[Jeffp60]

Expect a 17% drop in sales because of gas prices and extreme inflation.

[videoarizona]

Originally Posted by OntFF

We just bought a Jayco 267BHS - the dealer I got it from has 10 identical units on the lot; and 20 variations (different options and/or colours) of JUST THAT FLOORPLAN. Overall, they have over 300 new units sitting on their lot... and this is a single, family owned dealer in Niagara Falls, Canada...

Last 2 years, they couldn't get units in fast enough; so they ordered heavy for this season, expecting supply and demand to be comparable to the last two years... Supply went up, and with inflation & fuel prices; demand has plummeted - so they are sitting on hundred's of brand new units.

For those looking to buy, it's your market - for sellers, dealers, and suppliers/manufacturers; there's a couple rough years ahead, I think. I know the dealer I dealt with was MORE then happy to negotiate, just to move a unit off the lot...

Consider this. They probably bought those units by factoring them. Now each units costs them a monthly fee until sold. The longer it sits on lot, the more the actual dealer "cost" will be. I hope those owners get serious about turning over the inventory quickly... Or they will lose their shirts. Don't like to see a small business get into trouble like this!

[Grumpy]

Originally Posted by videoarizona

Consider this. They probably bought those units by factoring them. Now each units costs them a monthly fee until sold. The longer it sits on lot, the more the actual dealer "cost" will be. I hope those owners get serious about turning over the inventory quickly... Or they will lose their shirts. Don't like to see a small business get into trouble like this!

JAYCO doesn't build without an order or ship a unit until it's paid for. The dealer obviously wanted the inventory.

[videoarizona]

Originally Posted by Grumpy

JAYCO doesn't build without an order or ship a unit until it's paid for. The dealer obviously wanted the inventory.

That's need to me! Thank you for the clarification.