This post has started me thinking. We have the X17Z (2017) and I see all the same concerns. Our tow vehicle is likely similar (2019 Explorer). We use a WDH and have no trouble levelling for travel, no trouble handling, but have never actually done all the math or checked the weights.
Should I be thinking deeper into this, or blissfully carrying on? Relocating the battery or the propane seems pretty involved. I toyed with relocating the spare for other reasons (the winch failed, and the space was obstructing access to the in-line fuse, but I've dealt with those problems).
Edit - note to OP: by chance is your water tank full (hot or fresh), or do you have a lot of beer stored in the forward under-compartment?
I have a different Jayco trailer, but my tongue weight is very close to the max.
1) put my spare tire on the rear bumper. 2) changed over to a lithium battery, and (3) I have the two propane tanks, but I only keep one filled. The only time both are filled is in the winter. I have never run out of propane yet in the summer.
Instead of relying on calculations why not weight the rig including axle only, total weight of axle and tongue off vehicle to find where you really are.
You didn't post your tow vehicle or what limits that brings into the picture.
As said before, 16% is above average but does help make for a nicer tow if you can carry the load on your hitch.
Also, if not using one, add a WDH. Although it doesn't reduce the actual tongue weight it can redistribute weight to the front TV and to the TT axle. This can keep all your axles within the GAWR, and the 'virtual' tongue weight (by 2-pass CAT calculation) will be lower.
Go with a lighter weight option for the hitch though as it adds more weight to the overall equation.
My trailer is almost identical to yours and I've struggled with the same problem. I put my spare tire on the back; it rests on the bumper and is bolted through the puny rear wall just so it doesn't fall off. I have an access panel in my rear wall near the converter and it was easy to get in there and use a piece of plywood as sort of a washer where the bolt goes through to hold the tire in place; there's lots of room in there. Otherwise the bolt would pull through the foam wall. My tire is 13" and it just fits between the bumper and the bed when it folds down. I'm not sure if a 14" (which is probably what you have) will fit. I have since swapped out my original 13" tires with some much more robust 14" ones but I use one of the old wheels for the spare.
Here's the most important thing. You'll find that the lower your tongue is, the more it weighs. Change your receiver to one with a rise in it 'till your trailer is level when everything is loaded and you're hooked up. This is the height your coupler should be when you're measuring your tongue weight--it makes a big difference!
What are you using for a tow vehicle? Does it have any extra capacity? These campers really can't hold very much. Put all your heavy stuff into the TV. You could put the spare tire in the TV also. Keep all the heavy stuff as far forward as possible in the TV so it doesn't droop.
I'm going to assume your battery is heavy. Put it in the TV when you travel and use a small motorcycle or lawn tractor battery in the camper just to keep things going and provide power for your breakaway brakes. During normal operation that little battery should be kept charged through your seven pin connector.
Another thing you could do is move one of your propane tanks into the trailer--strap it to the back wall.
People have mentioned a weight distribution hitch. Be aware that many SUVs can't use them. I guess the hitch or frame isn't strong enough to take the stress.
Sorry to be so long winded...hope some of this helps!
Here is an answer to many suggestions and questions.
My TV is a Subaru Ascent. 5000 lbs towing capacity, 500 lbs tongue weight limit. A WDH is a no-no for this vehicle - and doesn't need it.
I have a hitch scale and it registers something like 550 lbs.
I had installed a holder for stinky slinky (5" vinyl post sleeve) on the rear bumper, which makes it impossible to locate the spare there. Aside from that, the 14" spare probably doesn't fit, and I am hesitant about the strength of the bumper and of the rear wall.
My son suggested a BAL device to relocate the spare, either a hide-a-spare or retract-a-spare (which btw is similar to what comes standard with the Jayco, but upfront). That doesn't work for two reasons: not enough clearance, since the bottom is more or less flush with the bottom of the frame, and the location - it couldn't go behind the axle, since the steps are in the way, and in front of the axle I would gain some 20 lbs, but loose that by the extra weight of the BAL device.
Putting the spare in the TV seems rather a hassle.
I considered a lithium battery, but would have to replace the converter and I was warned against it, since that battery might drain the TV battery because of its higher charging voltage.
Maybe leaving one gas tank at home (I don't think you are supposed to keep them in the trailer). Or leaving one empty - yes, I don't really need two.
I have a fairly heavy canopy which I will stow upright, strapped against the rear wall, together with a rolled up mattress topper.
And for the rest, the X17Z has always towed very well and stable, so I assume that a little over the manufacturer's recommended tongue weight limit will work just fine - which got the blessing of my TV's mechanic.
Thank you all!