Headed to the West Coast this coming weekend?
From the Reno, NV NWS
.LONG TERM...Friday through next week...
Here we go again! A strong Pacific storm is on tap to impact the
region starting late Thursday night into the weekend. A large scale
low pressure anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska with a strong 120+ knot
jet will draw another atmospheric river into central California.
This storm may only rank in the moderate category for this season,
but for April this amount of precipitation is relatively rare.
Forecast confidence is high that a strong storm will impact the
Sierra and western Nevada bringing another significant round of
rain, snow, and wind. Confidence is much lower in snow levels and
therefore lower in how much snow may accumulate below 7000 feet.
Model simulations from the last few days had been trending lower
with snow levels drawing in a cold pool with 700 mb temperatures of
-10C or colder, but the 12Z GFS has come in considerably warmer, at
least with the initial push of heavy moisture. Previous model runs
all had a straight jet with zonal flow allowing cold air to move
quickly into the Sierra along with the Pacific moisture push. The
latest GFS now has a shortwave moving through the base of the
trough, backing the flow and bending the jet stream as the moisture
arrives. This keeps the Sierra on the warmer side of the jet
initially and holds off colder air until later in the storm. This
scenario would keep snow levels from dropping to Lake Tahoe/Mammoth
Lake level until Saturday night.
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2006 Ram Laramie 2500 4x4 crew CTD
2017 Jayco Flight SLX 245 RLSW Baja edition.
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