Article about the RV industry and Recessions

[gypsmjim]

Originally Posted by RetiredOne

Actually there is a good reason. They are just responding to their customers, who want to pay less, even if it is cheap China crap. Remember, Walmart didn't get so big by accident. We've done this to ourselves, giving up "quality" for "cost".

I disagree. When the US companies shipped work overseas, they did not reduce prices. They took the savings and gave it to the stockholders and the company executives.

Also, not all of us gave up quality. Personally, I don't buy Fords and Chevys anymore. Rather I went up the food chain and paid a lot more for what I perceived a better quality car. And no, I didn't buy foreign.

I used to buy local. When I first started buying at WalMart, their advertising clearly demonstrated their commitment to US products. They are the ones tbhat went wrong and shame on them.

I also bought a Jayco because I perceived good quality. And that's what I got. Mine is only 4 years old and it has been 100%.

[AKRUEBBE]

Originally Posted by gypsmjim

When the US companies shipped work overseas, they did not reduce prices. They took the savings and gave it to the stockholders and the company executives.

Isn't what capitalism is all about?! I would never buy stocks if I wasn't expecting the best possible return. The alternative is socialism..........not for me.

[gypsmjim]

Originally Posted by AKRUEBBE

Isn't what capitalism is all about?! I would never buy stocks if I wasn't expecting the best possible return. The alternative is socialism..........not for me.

Yes, you are correct in principal.

I buy stocks too. I look at companies that have a good quality product and have good morals regarding employee safety and environmental concern.

However,....any companies that lays off employees or shortchanges the environment don't get my money......not for me.

Its fine and dandy to talk about this stuff, but the problem is that not enough of us are willing to put our money where our mouth is. WE are the enemy just as much as the corporate giants.

[jpgale]

Originally Posted by Forelyndogs

Europeans are often surprised when they learn that the shelf price of an item is not the sales price. VAT makes evaluating prices somewhat easier because the shelf price is what one pays.

If I am paying in cash I still sometimes forget to add the sales tax back in the UK it is easy, something is advertised for 9.99GBP and I have a tenner (Slang for 10 pound note) in my pocket I can buy it. In this part of California the sales tax is either high 8% or low 9% (disclaimer last time I looked which was a while ago) so I mentally add 10% but sometimes I just forget to do that.

[Jopopsy]

Originally Posted by RetiredOne

Someone here mentioned (I don't know if it's true) that many assemblers/installers get paid piece work instead of by the hour, so they rush to get the project done. Maybe with a slower work flow, they're taking more time?

I’m hoping this is the case ! Build date 6/26/2020 !

[wags999]

Originally Posted by Forelyndogs

Glad someone else accurately described the VAT. It is not a tariff but essentially accomplishes the same thing our sales tax does. Europeans are often surprised when they learn that the shelf price of an item is not the sales price. VAT makes evaluating prices somewhat easier because the shelf price is what one pays. To tariffs, there are many historians and economists who claim the Great Depression was made much worse by tariffs. Like all economists theories, it’s possible to see the issue from different sides but there is considerable evidence that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff was a major contributor to deepening the depression. Why the President insists that the country against whom the tariffs are leveled pay them escapes me. Clearly, we the consumers pay them. I assume he has a logical reason for this statement, I just can’t find it.

For the most part the Chinese have not passed the tariffs onto their prices. This in part is why they devalued their currency 10%, hence making the tariffs moot to the buyer. China is already losing manufactures as scores are moving to other countries, they can't afford to pass the tariffs to their customers. Government intervention in the depression was a major contributor to its depth and length. Sec of Treasure Henry Morgenthau Jr stated at the end of 8 years.." I say after eight years of this administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started and an enormous debt to boot"... The "new deal" was a disaster, with unemployment in 1939 higher than in 1931 when FDR won the presidency. Government spending $$ doesn't help, as he proved.

[wags999]

Originally Posted by jd99336

RV industry may or may not be an indicator of recession. More reliable is the recent inversion of yield curve, high level of consumer debt and slow down in housing starts. I mostly look at 1st two. Prediction currently is recession in 18 to 36 months. Keep in mind a recession is something like two quarters of negative growth. Many will see lost of sales,profits.. some will benefit from slower price increases, and so forth. Not quite the same as a depression which tends to see all boats taking on water.

Actually in today's environment the inversion of the yield curve doesn't mean what it use to. Today we have $16 Trillion around world with negative interest. Germany just offered a 30 year bond at a minus .1% interest...so you buy the bond, and for every million you buy, in 30 years they charge you $10,000 to hold your money... Our interest is way too high, that causes two things to happen, we overpay on interest of our debt, and other countries become starved for $$ as the money flows here where you can get real interest. Negative interest rates have not happened before, at least not to the extent they are today. It's a different world for sure.

[sirrealone]

Originally Posted by Crabman

They have also raised prices on some models. the trailer I bought in 2016 the MSRP has increased by over 4 grand. There is likely resistance levels to certain price points which could be contributing to slower sales as well as the previously mentioned factors.

When we went to the RV show last fall, every dealer told us that increased tariffs on items used in production were going to push prices up in 2019. I don't know if that was just them blowing smoke to try to get sales locked in, but if it's true, the increased cost would naturally move sales down the demand curve.

[RetiredOne]

Originally Posted by wags999

For the most part the Chinese have not passed the tariffs onto their prices.

Even if they did, we're talking peanuts to the cost. If the tariff was 10%, it would be added to the manufacturing cost, NOT the Retail cost, as the talking heads here want you to believe (with their scare tactics).

So, as an example, a product that sells Retail here for $19.95 would NOT have a $2.00 additional tariff added to it. That item probably has a $2.00 manufacturing cost in China, so they would add a 0.20 increase to it.

We wouldn't even notice it here.

The talking heads on some of the financial channels want us all to believe it would be armageddon and a major Depression.

[2edgesword]

I guess my question boils down to if tariffs are not the answer to getting China to open its markets and stop stealing intellectual property? Or do we just allow them to continue these practices with the view we're helpless to do anything about it?

[Crabman]

Originally Posted by sirrealone

When we went to the RV show last fall, every dealer told us that increased tariffs on items used in production were going to push prices up in 2019. I don't know if that was just them blowing smoke to try to get sales locked in, but if it's true, the increased cost would naturally move sales down the demand curve.

I'm thinking the increases are more due to demand and the manufacturers taking advantage of the situation then the actual tariffs. But for whatever reason prices have gone up.

[wags999]

Originally Posted by gypsmjim

I disagree. When the US companies shipped work overseas, they did not reduce prices. They took the savings and gave it to the stockholders and the company executives.

Also, not all of us gave up quality. Personally, I don't buy Fords and Chevys anymore. Rather I went up the food chain and paid a lot more for what I perceived a better quality car. And no, I didn't buy foreign.

I used to buy local. When I first started buying at WalMart, their advertising clearly demonstrated their commitment to US products. They are the ones tbhat went wrong and shame on them.

I also bought a Jayco because I perceived good quality. And that's what I got. Mine is only 4 years old and it has been 100%.

Buying US doesn't mean buying Ford or Chevy.. My tundra has more American parts and Labor than any other 1/2 Ton PU in that year. Made in Texas with mostly US parts...Best truck ive ever owned and I have owned many of them over the years. I've owned Ford, Chevy and Dodge vans and Pickups, for my business. This Tundra is the best vehicle all around than any other I have owned, plus... its More American Made than any of the others.. Interesting, it's the attitude and culture of the company that makes it better...from the top to the janitor, they seem to care... can't' say that for any of the other companies.. JMHO

[Route 66 Traveler]

I’ll second that. I bought mine in April of 2007, the first model year. It is now over 12 years old, pushing 135k miles, and has been the best truck I have ever owned. It has towed 3 travel trailers, and 2 large boats without any issues. My current TT grosses 7700 lbs and the truck pulls it with ease. Still getting 9.5 - 12 mpg. I haven’t given any thought to replacing it. Paid $24,000 for it in ‘07.

[Chet & Marie]

Originally Posted by wags999

For the most part the Chinese have not passed the tariffs onto their prices. This in part is why they devalued their currency 10%, hence making the tariffs moot to the buyer. China is already losing manufactures as scores are moving to other countries, they can't afford to pass the tariffs to their customers. Government intervention in the depression was a major contributor to its depth and length. Sec of Treasure Henry Morgenthau Jr stated at the end of 8 years.." I say after eight years of this administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started and an enormous debt to boot"... The "new deal" was a disaster, with unemployment in 1939 higher than in 1931 when FDR won the presidency. Government spending $$ doesn't help, as he proved.

I have taught under graduate and graduate level economics for 30 years at the university level. The New Deal of the era did not fix the depression as it was often too little too late. What ended the depression was WW2 and the massive increase in the level of government spending on the war effort. This meant a huge increase in jobs and wages. The draft also greatly reduced the supply of workers further increasing wages. The generally accepted belief is that the new deal did not fix the depression but kept it from getting worse.
My real worry is the huge federal debt that we now have. It will have a far more serious effect on our economy than Trumps trade war ever will. Taxes must go up and federal spending must go down. We have given our children and grand children a terrible burden.

[Atlee]

Originally Posted by Chet & Marie

I have taught under graduate and graduate level economics for 30 years at the university level. The New Deal of the era did not fix the depression as it was often too little too late. What ended the depression was WW2 and the massive increase in the level of government spending on the war effort. This meant a huge increase in jobs and wages. The draft also greatly reduced the supply of workers further increasing wages. The generally accepted belief is that the new deal did not fix the depression but kept it from getting worse.
My real worry is the huge federal debt that we now have. It will have a far more serious effect on our economy than Trumps trade war ever will. Taxes must go up and federal spending must go down. We have given our children and grand children a terrible burden.

1) Agree, WWII is what pulled the US out of the depression.

2) I've read that government intervention after the stock market crash of 1929, rather that fixing or even lessening the depression's bite, actually made it worse and extended it.

3) Agree wholeheartedly that the national debt is the most serious threat to this country. Eventually, it's going to break the back of this great country. Both parties are at fault. The only difference in the parties is the stuff they want to over spend on. It's always spend more with out reducing spending somewhere else, or just borrow more money, or increasing taxes to pay for it.

[Doubleheader]

I try to buy US made items and I’m willing to pay a premium for them. Let me point out though to all those complaining about Jayco outsourcing components, no one forces anyone to buy a Jayco. Make another decision, just be aware, every mfg. most likely has off shore stuff, just like every auto brand. It’s not the mfg. too blame. Blame the government and their inflationary policies for the last 40 years. IMHO, opening borders was partly a way to hide inflation, partly a way to deter wars (theory being you don’t fight with trading partners oriented by think tanks in the years of the Cold War).