RV Industry Downturn

[muckinfuss]

99% sure it's manufacturer ship.

[Superseneca]

I just got back from the Oshkosh air show. The place was absolutely packed with every kind of rv you could imagine. I'm not convinced gas prices are affecting rv travel. After 2 year of covid cancelations, people need to get out.

[SloPoke]

Originally Posted by kirkelli

You guys must have the cheapest gas in the county...

Just cross the border... it is almost a buck and a half cheaper per gallon when you cross at I40... and almost two bucks a gallon cheaper for Diesel.

[muckinfuss]

Not to beat this to death, but business cycles are a fact of life....and I can attest to my working in the M/C world back in the 70's a lot of the problem is ambitious views of the future by upper management. If you lived through the several recessions of the 70's and 80's you know this first hand. I was at the Forest River forum and came across the graphic for the past 10 years of shipments and a telling issue other than gas, interest, inflation yadda yadda is that 2020, 2021, and the trend for 2022 so far, has been that the manufacturers have, as a group, produced and delivered to dealers almost 140% more per year than they did in 2018 or 2019. That's a huge production increase.

[Onyrlef]

Originally Posted by muckinfuss

Not to beat this to death, but business cycles are a fact of life....and I can attest to my working in the M/C world back in the 70's a lot of the problem is ambitious views of the future by upper management. If you lived through the several recessions of the 70's and 80's you know this first hand. I was at the Forest River forum and came across the graphic for the past 10 years of shipments and a telling issue other than gas, interest, inflation yadda yadda is that 2020, 2021, and the trend for 2022 so far, has been that the manufacturers have, as a group, produced and delivered to dealers almost 140% more per year than they did in 2018 or 2019. That's a huge production increase.

X2, and much of the reason corporations take huge hits when an economic contraction cycles around is they prioritize short term profit over long term prospects. "Wal Mart" syndrome for example where a regional manufacturer of widgets is approached by WM to go big and manufacture widgets for WM at 2x dollars per widget. Manufacturer agrees, borrows millions to expand, hire and invest in infrastructure to ramp up production. Next year WM buyer tells manufacturer WM will now only pay 1.5x dollars per widget or seek out another supplier of that particular widget. Manufacturer can go bankrupt or agree to WM's restructuring of the contract.

[Florida Ranger]

Walmart tried that process with me and my manufacturing company. I told them to KISS MY a rear bumper….And found 2 other distributors to sell my product, we made 2x more money with them and they are easy to work with. That was 10 years ago and me and my employees could not be happier. Walmart is not the only game in town like they think they are……Switching distributors allowed me to Retire 5 yrs ago from having to go to the Plant everyday. Thank You Walmart !!!

[RPR]

Did we stray from the topic of RV Industry Downturn.

[klinner28]

The RV Nerd on Youtube says that the industry is reducing production by working less days per week.

He doesn't commit to saying if it's a buyers or sellers market... but that it's neutral. I'd think he does has some slight bias.

[jaydawg]

I'm jumping on this thread with a Canadian perspective.. things are the complete opposite up here. At least around me.

2023s are automatically 10% more than their 2022 counterparts and most of them are already paid for before they hit the lot. We went around to 6 dealers in the area, if we wanted new we had a 6 month wait and absolutely no choice in terms of model, we were going to get whatever Jayco sent unless we wanted a full year wait for the exact model we wanted.

Crazy up here right now still

[Yooper906]

Originally Posted by jaydawg

we were going to get whatever Jayco sent unless we wanted a full year wait for the exact model we wanted.

Crazy up here right now still

From my dealer: "Jayco doesn't just send RV's out. Every Jayco on the lot is dealer ordered." I'm sure he knows.

[jaydawg]

Originally Posted by Yooper906

From my dealer: "Jayco doesn't just send RV's out. Every Jayco on the lot is dealer ordered." I'm sure he knows.

Ah maybe I misspoke, I meant more like what the dealer had in the pipeline was what was available.

We were looking to order a specific model when we were there and that wasn’t an option according to the sales guy

[Onyrlef]

Originally Posted by jaydawg

Ah maybe I misspoke, I meant more like what the dealer had in the pipeline was what was available.

We were looking to order a specific model when we were there and that wasn’t an option according to the sales guy

Most high volume plants won't mix runs as well as they have only a limited amount of space for inventory. If they're going to build X number of model y, they only stock what's necessary to build model y and that's especially the case if they're operating with an inventory control system like "SAP". Most facilities aren't going to gum up the works for example by stopping the line to build one fifth wheel between 50 bumper pulls. They'll ordinarily let the dealers know what's scheduled, take orders and build that many units, then retool for the next run.

[Jerry713]

I'm in construction supply sales in central and southern portions of Texas. We are seeing definite slow downs in the number of new commercial construction projects bidding meaning projects that will not start for another 6-12 months. That side of our business has dropped by roughly 75%!

Have a friend in the moving business and he has been booked for 3-4 months out for the last 2 years. This month he might be booked for 2 days out and his phone has all but stopped ringing. And he is not moving people into houses for the most part it's moving people into condos & apartments.

Know someone in the custom home business who went from being booked 18 months out to only having one house underway and the others have backed out. He will have to sue them for breach of contract over the deposit otherwise he is all but shut down.

I'm seeing some concrete signs at least in my area economic times are changing for sure. No way I would buy anything substantial right now (vehicle, RV, home, land, etc.).

[kirkelli]

Gas prices are going down a little bit but not Diesel. I just filled a bone dry fuel tank to head out to the city to do some RV looky-Lo's. Dammmmm $210 to fill a bone dry tank.. and i get to do it again latter tonight when i get home....and adding in a recent camping trip, i spent about $1,000 in fuel this month (and this month is only half way through) how can anyone afford a new RV???

[Onyrlef]

Originally Posted by kirkelli

Gas prices are going down a little bit but not Diesel. I just filled a bone dry fuel tank to head out to the city to do some RV looky-Lo's. Dammmmm $210 to fill a bone dry tank.. and i get to do it again latter tonight when i get home....and adding in a recent camping trip, i spent about $1,000 in fuel this month (and this month is only half way through) how can anyone afford a new RV???

Gas prices in N. Texas are at about $3.00, down from high of close to $5.00 a few months back. Diesel drops along with gas but as has been the case runs a dollar and change above reg. unleaded.

[kirkelli]

Originally Posted by Onyrlef

Gas prices in N. Texas are at about $3.00, down from high of close to $5.00 a few months back. Diesel drops along with gas but as has been the case runs a dollar and change above reg. unleaded.

Unfortunately Calif has their own set of rules and we pay much much more... We've been thinking of fixing that Idaho style. :-)